Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-11-23 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 1 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 40.3%

BOS: 59.7%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.93

BOS: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	SJS	BOS
Season SV%	0.896	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	35	34	1	97.1%	2.54	1	1.54
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	31	28	3	90.3%	3.16	5	0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs BOS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	BOS 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	BOS
2025-11-23	SJS 3 - 1 BOS	SJS	BOS
2025-03-22	SJS 3 - 1 BOS	SJS	SJS
2025-01-20	BOS 6 - 3 SJS	BOS	BOS
2023-11-30	BOS 3 - 0 SJS	BOS	BOS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	13	1	0.70
1	BOS	11	0	0.29
2	SJS	14	0	0.74
2	BOS	29	0	1.40
3	SJS	13	4	1.71
3	BOS	14	1	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown