Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-11-23 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 5 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 47.4%

CGY: 52.6%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.12

CGY: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	VAN	CGY
Season SV%	0.885	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.41	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	21	16	5	76.2%	3.79	6	-1.21
CGY	Dustin Wolf	31	29	2	93.5%	3.45	1	1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • VAN at home vs CGY: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CGY 7 - 3 VAN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-23	VAN 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-10-09	VAN 5 - 1 CGY	VAN	VAN
2025-03-12	CGY 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	CGY
2024-12-31	CGY 3 - 1 VAN	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	22	0	1.80
1	CGY	9	1	1.00
2	VAN	8	0	0.27
2	CGY	14	1	0.85
3	VAN	21	1	1.39
3	CGY	11	4	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown