Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-11-24 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 64.8%
PHI: 35.2%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.78
PHI: 3.26
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 67%
Over 6.5: 56%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | TBL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.950 | 0.840 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs PHI: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | PHI 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | PHI |
| 2026-01-10 | PHI 2 - 7 TBL | TBL | PHI |
| 2025-11-24 | TBL 3 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-17 | TBL 2 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-13 | PHI 4 - 3 TBL | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:34 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:00 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:45 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 64.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 7.0
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.8 - 3.3