Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-11-24 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

TBL: 57.8%

PHI: 42.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.08

PHI: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • TBL at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	1	0.82
1	PHI	10	1	0.84
2	TBL	8	0	0.65
2	PHI	11	0	0.36
3	TBL	13	2	2.21
3	PHI	12	0	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9