Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-11-24 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 1 Columbus Blue Jackets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 63.5%

CBJ: 36.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.57

CBJ: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Stat	WSH	CBJ
Season SV%	0.913	0.877
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	4.04

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	23	22	1	95.7%	2.22	3	1.22
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	31	26	5	83.9%	2.84	1	-2.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • WSH at home vs CBJ: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CBJ 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	CBJ
2025-12-07	WSH 2 - 0 CBJ	WSH	WSH
2025-11-24	WSH 5 - 1 CBJ	WSH	WSH
2025-10-24	CBJ 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-13	WSH 1 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	0	0.83
1	CBJ	13	1	0.63
2	WSH	18	0	0.92
2	CBJ	11	1	0.66
3	WSH	14	1	1.09
3	CBJ	12	1	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown