Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-11-24 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 5 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 46.9%

VGK: 53.1%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.17

VGK: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

VGK

Carl Lindbom - 0-3-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	UTA	VGK
Season SV%	0.895	0.874
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	34	33	1	97.1%	4.84	6	3.84
VGK	Carl Lindbom	23	18	5	78.3%	3.73	2	-1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • UTA at home vs VGK: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	UTA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-29	VGK 5 - 4 UTA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-27	UTA 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-24	UTA 4 - 2 VGK	UTA	VGK
2026-04-21	VGK 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	18	0	1.11
1	VGK	11	1	0.73
2	UTA	8	0	0.56
2	VGK	25	3	2.45
3	UTA	15	2	2.07
3	VGK	19	2	1.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown