Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-11-25 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 8 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 53.0%

DAL: 47.0%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.21

DAL: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	EDM	DAL
Season SV%	0.896	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.81	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	30	22	8	73.3%	5.28	7	-2.72
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	22	3	88.0%	1.62	0	-1.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs DAL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	8	0	0.34
1	DAL	10	2	1.99
2	EDM	14	0	0.52
2	DAL	22	3	2.35
3	EDM	15	0	0.76
3	DAL	9	2	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown