Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-11-25 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 8 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 54.2%

DAL: 45.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.16

DAL: 4.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • EDM at home vs DAL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	8	0	0.34
1	DAL	10	2	1.99
2	EDM	14	0	0.52
2	DAL	22	3	2.35
3	EDM	15	0	0.76
3	DAL	9	2	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 8.0

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 8 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 4.8