Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-11-26 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Calgary Flames
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 59.0%
CGY: 41.0%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.66
CGY: 2.76
Total Goals
Median: 7.1
Over 5.5: 76%
Over 6.5: 62%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 23-29-3 | 0.899 SV% | 3.01 GAA
| Stat | TBL | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.969 | 0.250 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs CGY: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | CGY 4 - 3 TBL | CGY | TBL |
| 2025-11-26 | TBL 5 - 1 CGY | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-02-27 | TBL 3 - 0 CGY | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-12-12 | CGY 3 - 8 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-03-07 | TBL 3 - 6 CGY | CGY | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:39 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 01:26 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 05:52 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 10:01 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 01:04 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 14:23 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.7 - 2.8
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