Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 57.7%

CGY: 42.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.69

CGY: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	TBL	CGY
Season SV%	0.913	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	31	1	96.9%	3.83	2	2.83
CGY	Dustin Wolf	23	18	5	78.3%	2.86	3	-2.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	CGY 4 - 3 TBL	CGY	TBL
2025-11-26	TBL 5 - 1 CGY	TBL	TBL
2025-02-27	TBL 3 - 0 CGY	TBL	TBL
2024-12-12	CGY 3 - 8 TBL	TBL	CGY
2024-03-07	TBL 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.77
1	CGY	11	1	0.76
2	TBL	19	2	1.48
2	CGY	13	0	1.27
3	TBL	7	1	0.61
3	CGY	22	1	1.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown