Philadelphia Flyers at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 58.7%

PHI: 41.3%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.57

PHI: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	FLA	PHI
Season SV%	0.888	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	18	14	4	77.8%	1.76	0	-2.24
PHI	Dan Vladar	27	25	2	92.6%	2.83	2	0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • FLA at home vs PHI: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	FLA 2 - 4 PHI	PHI	FLA
2025-10-13	PHI 5 - 2 FLA	PHI	FLA
2025-10-09	FLA 2 - 1 PHI	FLA	FLA
2025-01-13	PHI 4 - 3 FLA	PHI	FLA
2024-12-05	PHI 5 - 7 FLA	FLA	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	24	2	1.87
1	PHI	10	0	0.60
2	FLA	9	0	0.59
2	PHI	12	0	0.51
3	FLA	9	0	0.38
3	PHI	13	0	0.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown