Boston Bruins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 3 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 53.2%

BOS: 46.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.38

BOS: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	NYI	BOS
Season SV%	0.910	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	14	11	3	78.6%	1.24	1	-1.76
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	44	43	1	97.7%	4.58	5	3.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYI at home vs BOS: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	NYI 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-11-04	NYI 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-10-28	BOS 5 - 2 NYI	BOS	NYI
2025-02-27	BOS 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-01-05	BOS 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	17	1	0.90
1	BOS	10	1	0.55
2	NYI	16	2	1.12
2	BOS	9	0	0.42
3	NYI	30	2	2.55
3	BOS	5	0	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown