Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 61.1%

BUF: 38.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.46

BUF: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	PIT	BUF
Season SV%	0.892	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.12	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	31	29	2	93.5%	3.02	2	1.02
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	19	15	4	78.9%	2.65	1	-1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	BUF
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	8	0	0.47
1	BUF	7	0	0.35
2	PIT	11	0	0.77
2	BUF	13	1	0.99
3	PIT	11	1	1.42
3	BUF	29	1	1.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown