Winnipeg Jets at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

WSH: 62.3%

WPG: 37.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.81

WPG: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	WPG 5 - 1 WSH	WPG	WSH
2025-11-26	WSH 4 - 3 WPG	WSH	WSH
2025-03-25	WPG 3 - 2 WSH	WPG	WPG
2025-02-01	WSH 4 - 5 WPG	WPG	WSH
2024-03-24	WSH 3 - 0 WPG	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	2	1.06
1	WPG	11	1	0.87
2	WSH	19	0	0.72
2	WPG	12	0	0.90
3	WSH	11	0	0.76
3	WPG	14	3	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9