Winnipeg Jets at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 65.8%

WPG: 34.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.79

WPG: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

Stat	WSH	WPG
Season SV%	0.887	0.880
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.07	3.49

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	21	18	3	85.7%	3.66	4	0.66
WPG	Eric Comrie	35	31	4	88.6%	2.54	2	-1.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	WPG 5 - 1 WSH	WPG	WSH
2025-11-26	WSH 4 - 3 WPG	WSH	WSH
2025-03-25	WPG 3 - 2 WSH	WPG	WPG
2025-02-01	WSH 4 - 5 WPG	WPG	WSH
2024-03-24	WSH 3 - 0 WPG	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	2	1.06
1	WPG	11	1	0.87
2	WSH	19	0	0.72
2	WPG	12	0	0.90
3	WSH	11	0	0.76
3	WPG	14	3	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown