New York Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 2 - 4 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (79% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 78.6%

NYR: 21.4%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.67

NYR: 2.56

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	CAR	NYR
Season SV%	0.865	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	18	14	4	77.8%	2.66	3	-1.34
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	38	36	2	94.7%	3.79	2	1.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • CAR at home vs NYR: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	NYR 0 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-29	CAR 3 - 2 NYR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-26	CAR 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	CAR
2025-11-04	NYR 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-12	CAR 7 - 3 NYR	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	15	0	0.88
1	NYR	14	2	1.16
2	CAR	16	0	1.06
2	NYR	14	0	0.58
3	CAR	24	2	1.84
3	NYR	7	1	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 78.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown