Montreal Canadiens at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 51.0%

MTL: 49.0%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.79

MTL: 3.76

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	UTA	MTL
Season SV%	0.895	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	17	13	4	76.5%	2.67	2	-1.33
MTL	Jakub Dobes	34	31	3	91.2%	4.49	3	1.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • UTA at home vs MTL: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	UTA 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	UTA
2025-11-08	MTL 6 - 2 UTA	MTL	UTA
2025-01-14	UTA 3 - 5 MTL	MTL	UTA
2024-11-26	MTL 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	11	1	0.79
1	MTL	9	0	0.99
2	UTA	19	2	2.22
2	MTL	6	0	0.59
3	UTA	22	0	1.48
3	MTL	11	2	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.5

Score Breakdown