Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 51.2%

OTT: 48.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.53

OTT: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs OTT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	OTT 7 - 1 VGK	OTT	OTT
2025-11-26	VGK 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	VGK
2024-11-21	OTT 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	OTT
2024-10-25	VGK 6 - 4 OTT	VGK	OTT
2024-02-24	OTT 4 - 3 VGK	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	17	0	1.06
1	OTT	16	1	0.91
2	VGK	13	4	1.68
2	OTT	13	0	0.57
3	VGK	18	1	1.42
3	OTT	8	0	0.26
4	VGK	3	0	0.42
4	OTT	3	0	0.19
5	VGK	3	0	0.23
5	OTT	3	1	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1