Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-11-26 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators (SO)
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 62.0%
OTT: 38.0%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.45
OTT: 3.77
Total Goals
Median: 8.9
Over 5.5: 89%
Over 6.5: 82%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | VGK | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.864 | 0.914 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs OTT: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | OTT 7 - 1 VGK | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-11-26 | VGK 3 - 4 OTT | OTT | VGK |
| 2024-11-21 | OTT 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | OTT |
| 2024-10-25 | VGK 6 - 4 OTT | VGK | OTT |
| 2024-02-24 | OTT 4 - 3 VGK | OTT | OTT |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 7.2
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.4 - 3.8
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