Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 5 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 56.6%

VAN: 43.4%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.18

VAN: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Petr Mrazek - 3-4-0 | 0.865 SV% | 3.78 GAA

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	ANA	VAN
Season SV%	0.865	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.78	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Petr Mrazek	28	23	5	82.1%	5.29	7	0.29
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	41	37	4	90.2%	5.18	2	1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • ANA at home vs VAN: 2-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	ANA 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	ANA
2026-03-24	VAN 3 - 5 ANA	ANA	VAN
2026-01-29	VAN 2 - 0 ANA	VAN	ANA
2025-11-26	ANA 4 - 5 VAN	VAN	ANA
2025-04-05	VAN 6 - 2 ANA	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	24	1	2.19
1	VAN	11	2	1.45
2	ANA	25	1	1.69
2	VAN	20	2	1.12
3	ANA	23	0	1.30
3	VAN	18	3	2.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown