Dallas Stars at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 53.1%

DAL: 46.9%

Expected Goals

SEA: 2.90

DAL: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	SEA	DAL
Season SV%	0.903	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.77	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Joey Daccord	21	18	3	85.7%	2.87	5	-0.13
DAL	Casey DeSmith	28	26	2	92.9%	2.35	1	0.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • SEA at home vs DAL: 0-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	DAL 4 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-11-26	SEA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-11-09	DAL 2 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-03-31	SEA 1 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-03-29	SEA 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	14	1	1.20
1	DAL	12	3	1.46
2	SEA	12	0	0.57
2	DAL	11	2	0.93
3	SEA	13	0	0.57
3	DAL	7	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown