Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 43.4%

TBL: 56.6%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.17

TBL: 3.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 38%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	DET	TBL
Season SV%	0.893	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	27	21	6	77.8%	4.89	6	-1.11
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	37	34	3	91.9%	4.05	3	1.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DET at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	TBL
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	0	1.34
1	TBL	15	2	1.02
2	DET	17	2	1.70
2	TBL	17	3	2.43
3	DET	15	1	1.01
3	TBL	8	1	1.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown