Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2025-11-28 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 59.8%
TBL: 40.2%
Expected Goals
DET: 2.88
TBL: 2.59
Total Goals
Median: 5.2
Over 5.5: 47%
Over 6.5: 32%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | DET | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.887 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.897 | 0.926 |
| GAA | 2.97 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DET at home vs TBL: 4-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | DET 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | DET |
| 2025-10-17 | DET 2 - 1 TBL | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-11 | TBL 3 - 4 DET | DET | TBL |
| 2025-02-08 | DET 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | DET |
| 2025-01-25 | DET 2 - 0 TBL | DET | DET |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:07 | DET | Goal |
| 1 | 11:29 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 18:26 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:09 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:13 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:01 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 00:34 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:13 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 12:37 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.9 - 2.6