Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

DET: 39.4%

TBL: 60.6%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.79

TBL: 3.67

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DET at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	0	1.34
1	TBL	15	2	1.02
2	DET	17	2	1.70
2	TBL	17	3	2.43
3	DET	15	1	1.01
3	TBL	8	1	1.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.8 - 3.7