Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Colorado Avalanche (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 36.1%

COL: 63.9%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.87

COL: 3.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	MIN	COL
Season SV%	0.928	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	44	41	3	93.2%	5.06	4	2.06
COL	Scott Wedgewood	42	38	4	90.5%	5.13	4	1.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • MIN at home vs COL: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-13	COL 4 - 3 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-11	MIN 2 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2026-05-09	MIN 5 - 1 COL	MIN	COL
2026-05-05	COL 5 - 2 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-03	COL 9 - 6 MIN	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	16	0	0.68
1	COL	24	2	1.67
2	MIN	26	2	2.23
2	COL	12	0	0.49
3	MIN	12	0	0.40
3	COL	21	1	1.63
4	MIN	0	0	0.00
4	COL	3	0	0.15
5	MIN	3	2	1.83
5	COL	3	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.9 - 3.6