New Jersey Devils at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 5 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 51.6%

NJD: 48.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.18

NJD: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Stat	BUF	NJD
Season SV%	0.906	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	23	18	5	78.3%	2.17	2	-2.83
NJD	Jake Allen	42	42	0	100.0%	3.69	3	3.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BUF at home vs NJD: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	NJD 1 - 2 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-12-21	NJD 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-11-28	BUF 0 - 5 NJD	NJD	BUF
2025-02-02	BUF 4 - 3 NJD	BUF	NJD
2024-10-05	NJD 3 - 1 BUF	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.60
1	NJD	11	1	0.68
2	BUF	25	0	1.24
2	NJD	10	1	0.89
3	BUF	26	3	1.85
3	NJD	8	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown