Calgary Flames at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 5 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 56.0%

CGY: 44.0%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.27

CGY: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • FLA at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	CGY 4 - 1 FLA	CGY	CGY
2025-11-28	FLA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	FLA
2025-03-01	FLA 3 - 0 CGY	FLA	FLA
2024-12-14	CGY 3 - 0 FLA	CGY	FLA
2024-03-09	FLA 5 - 1 CGY	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	27	5	2.55
1	CGY	17	1	0.98
2	FLA	15	1	0.70
2	CGY	19	0	1.14
3	FLA	23	2	2.50
3	CGY	14	3	1.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7