Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 59.4%

PHI: 40.6%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.42

PHI: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	NYI	PHI
Season SV%	0.909	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	David Rittich	24	19	5	79.2%	3.86	2	-1.14
PHI	Samuel Ersson	33	29	4	87.9%	5.18	1	1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NYI at home vs PHI: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-03	NYI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2026-01-26	PHI 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	PHI
2025-11-28	NYI 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2025-10-25	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-12	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	0	1.36
1	PHI	5	0	0.42
2	NYI	16	0	1.28
2	PHI	18	0	1.30
3	NYI	17	0	1.02
3	PHI	5	0	0.40
4	NYI	5	0	0.45
4	PHI	2	0	0.17
5	NYI	3	1	1.07
5	PHI	3	2	1.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9