Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 55.5%

PHI: 44.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.21

PHI: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NYI at home vs PHI: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-03	NYI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2026-01-26	PHI 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	PHI
2025-11-28	NYI 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2025-10-25	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-12	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	0	1.36
1	PHI	5	0	0.42
2	NYI	16	0	1.28
2	PHI	18	0	1.30
3	NYI	17	0	1.02
3	PHI	5	0	0.40
4	NYI	5	0	0.45
4	PHI	2	0	0.17
5	NYI	3	1	1.07
5	PHI	3	2	1.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0