Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 47.8%

OTT: 52.2%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.23

OTT: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

Stat	STL	OTT
Season SV%	0.869	0.872
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.56	3.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	28	25	3	89.3%	3.24	5	0.24
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	31	27	4	87.1%	3.10	2	-0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • STL at home vs OTT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	OTT 1 - 2 STL	STL	OTT
2025-11-28	STL 4 - 3 OTT	STL	OTT
2025-01-03	STL 4 - 0 OTT	STL	STL
2024-10-29	OTT 8 - 1 STL	OTT	OTT
2024-03-21	OTT 2 - 5 STL	STL	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	8	0	0.75
1	OTT	7	1	0.77
2	STL	17	1	0.97
2	OTT	14	3	1.29
3	STL	17	1	1.37
3	OTT	19	1	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown