Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 56.5%

MTL: 43.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.32

MTL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-27	MTL 3 - 2 VGK	MTL	MTL
2025-11-28	VGK 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-12-31	VGK 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-11-23	MTL 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	MTL
2023-11-16	MTL 5 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	19	0	1.20
1	MTL	9	3	0.96
2	VGK	20	0	1.01
2	MTL	13	0	1.04
3	VGK	11	1	1.00
3	MTL	11	2	1.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0