Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 55.7%

MTL: 44.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.78

MTL: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Stat	VGK	MTL
Season SV%	0.895	0.863
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.50	3.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Akira Schmid	19	15	4	78.9%	3.81	5	-0.19
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	31	30	1	96.8%	3.20	1	2.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-27	MTL 3 - 2 VGK	MTL	MTL
2025-11-28	VGK 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-12-31	VGK 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-11-23	MTL 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	MTL
2023-11-16	MTL 5 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	19	0	1.20
1	MTL	9	3	0.96
2	VGK	20	0	1.01
2	MTL	13	0	1.04
3	VGK	11	1	1.00
3	MTL	11	2	1.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown