Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-11-28 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 55.1%
MTL: 44.9%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.46
MTL: 2.57
Total Goals
Median: 5.5
Over 5.5: 46%
Over 6.5: 33%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | VGK | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.864 | 0.941 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs MTL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | MTL 3 - 2 VGK | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-11-28 | VGK 1 - 4 MTL | MTL | VGK |
| 2024-12-31 | VGK 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | VGK |
| 2024-11-23 | MTL 2 - 6 VGK | VGK | VGK |
| 2023-11-16 | MTL 5 - 6 VGK | VGK | VGK |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.5 - 2.6
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