Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 66.0%

TOR: 34.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 4.14

TOR: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 38%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	WSH	TOR
Season SV%	0.913	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	22	20	2	90.9%	3.06	1	1.06
TOR	Joseph Woll	34	30	4	88.2%	4.39	5	0.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • WSH at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	1	0.92
1	TOR	11	0	0.58
2	WSH	17	1	1.25
2	TOR	9	0	0.84
3	WSH	19	3	2.21
3	TOR	18	1	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown