Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

WSH: 67.0%

TOR: 33.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 4.04

TOR: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • WSH at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	1	0.92
1	TOR	11	0	0.58
2	WSH	17	1	1.25
2	TOR	9	0	0.84
3	WSH	19	3	2.21
3	TOR	18	1	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 4.0 - 2.7