Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-11-28 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 61.7%
TOR: 38.3%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.55
TOR: 2.65
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | WSH | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.955 | 0.909 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs TOR: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-18 | WSH 4 - 0 TOR | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-11-28 | WSH 4 - 2 TOR | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-12-28 | TOR 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | TOR |
| 2024-12-06 | TOR 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-11-13 | WSH 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:07 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 02:49 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 13:18 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 13:16 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 16:04 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 19:58 | WSH | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 61.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.5 - 2.7