Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-11-29 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

NYR: 49.7%

TBL: 50.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.73

TBL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYR at home vs TBL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	NYR
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	6	0	0.23
1	TBL	16	1	1.59
2	NYR	13	1	0.91
2	TBL	24	1	1.44
3	NYR	11	0	0.76
3	TBL	15	4	3.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.7 - 3.0