Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-11-29 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 45.8%

TBL: 54.2%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.27

TBL: 3.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	NYR	TBL
Season SV%	0.910	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	35	31	4	88.6%	6.09	6	2.09
TBL	Jonas Johansson	13	12	1	92.3%	1.89	1	0.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYR at home vs TBL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	6	0	0.23
1	TBL	16	1	1.59
2	NYR	13	1	0.91
2	TBL	24	1	1.44
3	NYR	11	0	0.76
3	TBL	15	4	3.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown