Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2025-11-29 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 64.0%
TBL: 36.0%
Expected Goals
NYR: 2.94
TBL: 2.89
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 36%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | NYR | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.942 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.914 | 0.615 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYR at home vs TBL: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | NYR 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | NYR |
| 2025-11-12 | TBL 3 - 7 NYR | NYR | TBL |
| 2025-04-17 | NYR 4 - 0 TBL | NYR | NYR |
| 2025-04-07 | NYR 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | NYR |
| 2024-12-28 | TBL 6 - 2 NYR | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:53 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 17:31 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 08:57 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:42 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 02:02 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 64.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.9 - 2.9