Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-11-29 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 77.4%

MTL: 22.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.04

MTL: 2.48

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	COL	MTL
Season SV%	0.924	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	23	21	2	91.3%	2.14	0	0.14
MTL	Jakub Dobes	36	29	7	80.6%	3.80	1	-3.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • COL at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MTL 7 - 3 COL	MTL	COL
2025-11-29	COL 7 - 2 MTL	COL	COL
2025-03-22	MTL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-04	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL
2024-03-26	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	20	1	1.16
1	MTL	17	0	1.24
2	COL	18	0	1.49
2	MTL	8	0	0.50
3	COL	17	0	1.15
3	MTL	9	0	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown