Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-11-29 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Detroit Red Wings (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 51.8%

DET: 48.2%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.61

DET: 3.67

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Stat	BOS	DET
Season SV%	0.903	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.99

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	29	27	2	93.1%	4.04	2	2.04
DET	Cam Talbot	22	19	3	86.4%	3.56	3	0.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • BOS at home vs DET: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	DET 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	DET
2026-01-13	BOS 3 - 0 DET	BOS	BOS
2025-12-02	DET 5 - 4 BOS	DET	DET
2025-11-29	BOS 3 - 2 DET	BOS	BOS
2025-03-29	DET 2 - 1 BOS	DET	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	9	1	0.66
1	DET	11	1	1.05
2	BOS	16	0	0.97
2	DET	11	0	0.77
3	BOS	9	1	0.86
3	DET	16	1	1.42
4	BOS	2	0	0.16
4	DET	7	0	0.60
5	BOS	2	1	0.91
5	DET	3	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.3

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.6 - 3.7