Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-11-29 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 51.9%

PHI: 48.1%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.31

PHI: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	NJD	PHI
Season SV%	0.884	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.32	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	32	27	5	84.4%	3.97	3	-1.03
PHI	Dan Vladar	32	29	3	90.6%	2.97	2	-0.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NJD at home vs PHI: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	NJD 1 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-29	NJD 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-22	PHI 6 - 3 NJD	PHI	PHI
2025-03-09	PHI 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	PHI
2025-01-29	NJD 5 - 0 PHI	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	14	1	0.71
1	PHI	10	0	0.80
2	NJD	21	1	1.46
2	PHI	15	2	1.29
3	NJD	14	0	0.80
3	PHI	14	1	1.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown