Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-11-29 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 61.9%
TOR: 38.1%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.23
TOR: 2.57
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | PIT | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.862 | 0.906 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs TOR: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | TOR 6 - 3 PIT | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-11-29 | PIT 2 - 7 TOR | TOR | PIT |
| 2025-11-03 | TOR 4 - 3 PIT | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-03-02 | PIT 5 - 6 TOR | TOR | PIT |
| 2024-12-07 | PIT 5 - 2 TOR | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:46 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 08:14 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 11:06 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 02:24 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 04:53 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 13:58 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 04:37 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 07:14 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 13:16 | TOR | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.2 - 2.6