Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-11-29 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 51.2%

TOR: 48.8%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.23

TOR: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 46%

Over 6.5: 29%

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs TOR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	PIT
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	PIT
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	TOR

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 2.6