Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-11-29 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 62.7%

TOR: 37.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.61

TOR: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs TOR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	PIT
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	15	0	1.12
1	TOR	7	1	0.72
2	PIT	19	0	0.99
2	TOR	13	2	1.57
3	PIT	24	0	1.54
3	TOR	11	1	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.6 - 3.2