Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-11-29 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 58.8%

TOR: 41.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.35

TOR: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

Stat	PIT	TOR
Season SV%	0.886	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.90

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	23	16	7	69.6%	2.86	4	-4.14
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	35	33	2	94.3%	3.64	0	1.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs TOR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	PIT
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	PIT
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	15	0	1.12
1	TOR	7	1	0.72
2	PIT	19	0	0.99
2	TOR	13	2	1.57
3	PIT	24	0	1.54
3	TOR	11	1	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown