Buffalo Sabres at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-11-29 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 54.2%

BUF: 45.8%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.13

BUF: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

Stat	MIN	BUF
Season SV%	0.912	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	3.25

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	36	31	5	86.1%	5.49	5	0.49
BUF	Colten Ellis	26	22	4	84.6%	4.35	4	0.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • MIN at home vs BUF: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	BUF 3 - 2 MIN	BUF	BUF
2026-01-17	BUF 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	BUF
2025-11-29	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	MIN
2025-03-22	MIN 4 - 1 BUF	MIN	BUF
2024-11-27	BUF 0 - 1 MIN	MIN	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	18	0	0.83
1	BUF	13	1	0.96
2	MIN	11	2	1.02
2	BUF	16	0	0.92
3	MIN	5	0	0.35
3	BUF	13	0	0.52
4	MIN	2	0	0.17
4	BUF	3	1	0.34
5	MIN	4	2	1.98
5	BUF	4	3	2.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0