San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-11-29 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 San Jose Sharks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 77.6%

SJS: 22.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.66

SJS: 1.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carl Lindbom - 0-3-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.18 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	VGK	SJS
Season SV%	0.874	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carl Lindbom	21	18	3	85.7%	2.41	2	-0.59
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	24	20	4	83.3%	4.28	5	0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • VGK at home vs SJS: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	2	1.65
1	SJS	13	0	0.38
2	VGK	15	2	1.59
2	SJS	15	2	1.40
3	VGK	10	1	1.05
3	SJS	7	0	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown