Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-11-30 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 6 - 1 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 42.0%

OTT: 58.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.26

OTT: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	DAL	OTT
Season SV%	0.912	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.44	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	16	15	1	93.8%	2.27	3	1.27
OTT	Linus Ullmark	26	20	6	76.9%	2.88	3	-3.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs OTT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-30	DAL 6 - 1 OTT	DAL	OTT
2025-11-11	OTT 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	OTT
2025-01-12	OTT 3 - 2 DAL	OTT	OTT
2025-01-02	DAL 4 - 2 OTT	DAL	DAL
2024-02-22	OTT 4 - 1 DAL	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	6	0	0.56
1	OTT	14	1	0.79
2	DAL	6	0	0.60
2	OTT	13	1	0.98
3	DAL	15	3	1.72
3	OTT	9	1	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown