Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-11-30 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 6 - 1 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 46.4%

OTT: 53.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.60

OTT: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • DAL at home vs OTT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-30	DAL 6 - 1 OTT	DAL	OTT
2025-11-11	OTT 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	OTT
2025-01-12	OTT 3 - 2 DAL	OTT	OTT
2025-01-02	DAL 4 - 2 OTT	DAL	OTT
2024-02-22	OTT 4 - 1 DAL	OTT	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	6	0	0.56
1	OTT	14	1	0.79
2	DAL	6	0	0.60
2	OTT	13	1	0.98
3	DAL	15	3	1.72
3	OTT	9	1	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 6 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1