Columbus Blue Jackets at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-12-01 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 59.0%

CBJ: 41.0%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.45

CBJ: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Stat	NJD	CBJ
Season SV%	0.912	0.877
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.52	4.04

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	25	20	5	80.0%	3.08	2	-1.92
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	33	30	3	90.9%	3.89	3	0.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NJD at home vs CBJ: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	NJD 0 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	NJD
2025-12-31	CBJ 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	CBJ
2025-12-01	NJD 3 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	NJD
2025-10-13	CBJ 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	CBJ
2025-03-17	CBJ 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	14	2	1.46
1	CBJ	9	0	0.55
2	NJD	19	1	1.25
2	CBJ	14	0	1.06
3	NJD	19	0	1.18
3	CBJ	9	2	1.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown