Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-12-01 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 62.8%

WPG: 37.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.35

WPG: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

Stat	BUF	WPG
Season SV%	0.903	0.880
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	3.49

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	24	23	1	95.8%	2.12	0	1.12
WPG	Eric Comrie	31	26	5	83.9%	3.12	1	-1.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • BUF at home vs WPG: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-05	WPG 4 - 1 BUF	WPG	WPG
2025-12-01	BUF 5 - 1 WPG	BUF	BUF
2025-03-23	WPG 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	WPG
2024-12-05	BUF 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-03-03	BUF 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	17	1	1.58
1	WPG	16	0	0.66
2	BUF	10	0	0.69
2	WPG	9	0	0.66
3	BUF	12	0	0.85
3	WPG	11	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown