Utah Hockey Club at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-12-01 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 6 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 48.5%

UTA: 51.5%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.03

UTA: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	SJS	UTA
Season SV%	0.896	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	34	31	3	91.2%	2.94	1	-0.06
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	30	24	6	80.0%	2.92	1	-3.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs UTA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-01	SJS 6 - 3 UTA	SJS	UTA
2025-11-18	SJS 3 - 2 UTA	SJS	SJS
2025-10-17	UTA 6 - 3 SJS	UTA	UTA
2025-01-10	UTA 2 - 1 SJS	UTA	UTA
2024-12-14	SJS 3 - 4 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	19	1	1.17
1	UTA	15	0	1.03
2	SJS	17	0	1.32
2	UTA	19	1	1.14
3	SJS	11	0	0.43
3	UTA	9	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown