Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-02 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 45.8%

OTT: 54.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.01

OTT: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	MTL	OTT
Season SV%	0.863	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.52	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	29	24	5	82.8%	4.38	6	-0.62
OTT	Linus Ullmark	22	20	2	90.9%	1.95	0	-0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs OTT: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	9	0	0.60
1	OTT	14	1	0.93
2	MTL	13	0	0.78
2	OTT	18	2	1.90
3	MTL	10	0	0.56
3	OTT	12	3	1.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown