Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-02 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

MTL: 43.9%

OTT: 56.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.03

OTT: 3.53

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • MTL at home vs OTT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	9	0	0.60
1	OTT	14	1	0.93
2	MTL	13	0	0.78
2	OTT	18	2	1.90
3	MTL	10	0	0.56
3	OTT	12	3	1.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5