Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-12-02 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 65.1%

TOR: 34.9%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.90

TOR: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • FLA at home vs TOR: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	FLA
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	17	0	1.01
1	TOR	15	0	0.61
2	FLA	12	0	0.46
2	TOR	20	2	1.50
3	FLA	12	0	0.40
3	TOR	13	3	2.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.9 - 2.8