Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-12-02 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 60.4%
TBL: 39.6%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.09
TBL: 3.11
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 47%
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs TBL: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | NYI 3 - 2 TBL | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-12-06 | TBL 0 - 2 NYI | NYI | TBL |
| 2025-12-02 | NYI 2 - 1 TBL | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-04-01 | NYI 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-29 | TBL 5 - 3 NYI | TBL | TBL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYI | 13 | 1 | 0.75 |
| 1 | TBL | 16 | 1 | 1.13 |
| 2 | NYI | 10 | 0 | 0.76 |
| 2 | TBL | 17 | 0 | 1.26 |
| 3 | NYI | 14 | 3 | 2.53 |
| 3 | TBL | 19 | 1 | 1.78 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 60.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.1 - 3.1
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