Dallas Stars at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-12-02 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 2 Dallas Stars (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 49.8%

DAL: 50.2%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.06

DAL: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	NYR	DAL
Season SV%	0.910	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	26	24	2	92.3%	2.01	2	0.01
DAL	Casey DeSmith	41	38	3	92.7%	3.93	2	0.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYR at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	DAL 2 - 0 NYR	DAL	DAL
2025-12-02	NYR 3 - 2 DAL	NYR	DAL
2025-01-07	NYR 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-20	DAL 1 - 3 NYR	NYR	DAL
2024-02-20	NYR 3 - 1 DAL	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	15	1	1.40
1	DAL	13	0	0.57
2	NYR	15	0	0.94
2	DAL	15	0	0.54
3	NYR	22	1	1.38
3	DAL	7	2	0.80
4	NYR	2	0	0.21
4	DAL	1	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1