Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-12-02 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 0 - 1 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 56.1%

MIN: 43.9%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.15

MIN: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	EDM	MIN
Season SV%	0.896	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.81	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	24	23	1	95.8%	2.91	3	1.91
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	33	33	0	100.0%	2.47	0	2.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • EDM at home vs MIN: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	EDM 3 - 7 MIN	MIN	EDM
2025-12-20	MIN 5 - 2 EDM	MIN	EDM
2025-12-02	EDM 0 - 1 MIN	MIN	EDM
2025-01-15	MIN 3 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-12	MIN 1 - 7 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	0	0.25
1	MIN	13	0	0.51
2	EDM	20	0	1.45
2	MIN	8	0	0.44
3	EDM	20	0	0.76
3	MIN	15	3	1.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown