Washington Capitals at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2025-12-02 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

LAK: 58.3%

WSH: 41.7%

Expected Goals

LAK: 2.79

WSH: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	LAK	WSH
Season SV%	0.913	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.27	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	25	22	3	88.0%	3.89	3	0.89
WSH	Logan Thompson	25	24	1	96.0%	2.74	2	1.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • LAK at home vs WSH: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-02	LAK 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	LAK
2025-11-17	WSH 2 - 1 LAK	WSH	WSH
2025-03-13	LAK 3 - 0 WSH	LAK	LAK
2024-12-22	WSH 3 - 1 LAK	WSH	WSH
2024-01-07	WSH 4 - 3 LAK	WSH	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	9	0	0.39
1	WSH	15	1	1.33
2	LAK	20	1	1.16
2	WSH	11	0	0.58
3	LAK	17	1	1.19
3	WSH	11	2	1.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown