Washington Capitals at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-12-03 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 7 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 43.1%

WSH: 56.9%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.58

WSH: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Stat	SJS	WSH
Season SV%	0.896	0.887
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	3.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	31	24	7	77.4%	2.92	2	-4.08
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	24	23	1	95.8%	2.39	0	1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SJS at home vs WSH: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	WSH 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	WSH
2025-12-03	SJS 1 - 7 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-15	SJS 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-03	WSH 1 - 2 SJS	SJS	WSH
2023-11-27	SJS 2 - 1 WSH	SJS	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	18	0	1.10
1	WSH	15	2	1.48
2	SJS	11	0	0.46
2	WSH	18	0	0.88
3	SJS	10	0	0.83
3	WSH	8	0	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown