St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-12-04 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 5 - 2 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 47.4%

STL: 52.6%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.63

STL: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	BOS	STL
Season SV%	0.882	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.60	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	39	37	2	94.9%	2.87	2	0.87
STL	Jordan Binnington	27	22	5	81.5%	2.17	2	-2.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 0% • BOS at home vs STL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	STL 2 - 5 BOS	BOS	STL
2025-12-04	BOS 5 - 2 STL	BOS	STL
2024-11-16	BOS 2 - 3 STL	STL	BOS
2024-11-12	STL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	STL
2024-03-11	BOS 1 - 5 STL	STL	BOS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	18	1	1.15
1	STL	19	0	0.96
2	BOS	10	1	0.61
2	STL	18	0	0.98
3	BOS	8	0	0.41
3	STL	21	2	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown