New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-12-04 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 63.2%

NYR: 36.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.23

NYR: 2.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	OTT	NYR
Season SV%	0.872	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.46	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	28	24	4	85.7%	4.54	7	0.54
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	27	25	2	92.6%	2.52	1	0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • OTT at home vs NYR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-23	NYR 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-14	NYR 4 - 8 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-04	OTT 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	OTT
2025-03-08	OTT 4 - 3 NYR	OTT	OTT
2025-01-21	NYR 5 - 0 OTT	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	15	1	0.91
1	NYR	10	0	0.60
2	OTT	8	0	0.41
2	NYR	18	2	1.24
3	OTT	20	0	1.20
3	NYR	12	5	2.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown