Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-12-04 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 62.0%
PIT: 38.0%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.36
PIT: 3.03
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | TBL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.963 | — |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • TBL at home vs PIT: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | PIT 1 - 2 TBL | TBL | PIT |
| 2025-12-04 | TBL 3 - 4 PIT | PIT | TBL |
| 2025-03-25 | TBL 6 - 1 PIT | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-12 | PIT 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | PIT |
| 2024-11-19 | PIT 2 - 3 TBL | TBL | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:12 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 18:46 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 09:49 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 07:53 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 17:17 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 11:44 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 01:17 | PIT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.4 - 3.0