Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-12-04 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 56.2%

PIT: 43.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.03

PIT: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	0	1.85
1	PIT	12	0	0.79
2	TBL	15	0	1.09
2	PIT	18	1	1.50
3	TBL	22	2	1.84
3	PIT	17	2	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8