Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-12-04 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 53.2%

PIT: 46.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.07

PIT: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 53%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Stat	TBL	PIT
Season SV%	0.894	0.892
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.83	3.12

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Jonas Johansson	31	27	4	87.1%	3.26	3	-0.74
PIT	Tristan Jarry	40	37	3	92.5%	4.78	2	1.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TBL at home vs PIT: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	0	1.85
1	PIT	12	0	0.79
2	TBL	15	0	1.09
2	PIT	18	1	1.50
3	TBL	22	2	1.84
3	PIT	17	2	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown