Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-12-04 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 56.8%

PIT: 43.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.40

PIT: 2.39

Total Goals

Median: 5.3

Over 5.5: 41%

Over 6.5: 28%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.4