Detroit Red Wings at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2025-12-04 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 5 Detroit Red Wings (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 53.4%

DET: 46.6%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.49

DET: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Stat	CBJ	DET
Season SV%	0.877	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	4.04	2.99

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	35	30	5	85.7%	4.91	6	-0.09
DET	Cam Talbot	35	28	7	80.0%	4.99	4	-2.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CBJ at home vs DET: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DET 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-12-04	CBJ 6 - 5 DET	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-22	DET 4 - 3 CBJ	DET	CBJ
2025-03-01	CBJ 5 - 3 DET	CBJ	CBJ
2025-02-27	DET 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	16	0	0.75
1	DET	10	1	0.92
2	CBJ	12	1	1.35
2	DET	19	4	2.23
3	CBJ	20	1	1.01
3	DET	16	1	1.41
4	CBJ	3	0	0.24
4	DET	2	0	0.22
5	CBJ	3	2	1.65
5	DET	2	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0