Buffalo Sabres at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-12-05 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 43.8%

BUF: 56.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.86

BUF: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WPG at home vs BUF: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-05	WPG 4 - 1 BUF	WPG	BUF
2025-12-01	BUF 5 - 1 WPG	BUF	BUF
2025-03-23	WPG 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	WPG
2024-12-05	BUF 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	BUF
2024-03-03	BUF 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	13	0	0.80
1	BUF	22	2	1.48
2	WPG	14	0	1.03
2	BUF	22	0	1.01
3	WPG	8	1	1.17
3	BUF	12	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1