San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-12-05 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 61.7%

SJS: 38.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.50

SJS: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	DAL	SJS
Season SV%	0.907	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	17	16	1	94.1%	1.81	2	0.81
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	24	20	4	83.3%	3.21	4	-0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • DAL at home vs SJS: 4-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	SJS 5 - 4 DAL	SJS	DAL
2025-12-18	SJS 3 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-05	DAL 4 - 1 SJS	DAL	DAL
2025-02-08	SJS 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	SJS
2024-11-20	DAL 5 - 2 SJS	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	2	1.09
1	SJS	4	0	0.14
2	DAL	7	0	0.45
2	SJS	10	1	0.70
3	DAL	18	2	1.67
3	SJS	10	1	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown