San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-12-05 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

DAL: 59.8%

SJS: 40.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.22

SJS: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • DAL at home vs SJS: 4-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	SJS 5 - 4 DAL	SJS	DAL
2025-12-18	SJS 3 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-05	DAL 4 - 1 SJS	DAL	DAL
2025-02-08	SJS 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-20	DAL 5 - 2 SJS	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	2	1.09
1	SJS	4	0	0.14
2	DAL	7	0	0.45
2	SJS	10	1	0.70
3	DAL	18	2	1.67
3	SJS	10	1	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9