Washington Capitals at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-12-05 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 3 Washington Capitals (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 49.4%

WSH: 50.6%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.30

WSH: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Ville Husso - 5-3-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.25 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	ANA	WSH
Season SV%	0.884	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.25	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Ville Husso	24	20	4	83.3%	4.20	5	0.20
WSH	Logan Thompson	41	36	5	87.8%	5.79	3	0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ANA at home vs WSH: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-05	WSH 7 - 4 ANA	WSH	WSH
2025-12-05	ANA 4 - 3 WSH	ANA	WSH
2025-03-11	ANA 4 - 7 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-01-14	WSH 3 - 0 ANA	WSH	WSH
2024-01-16	WSH 2 - 0 ANA	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	17	0	0.83
1	WSH	18	1	1.24
2	ANA	20	0	1.65
2	WSH	12	2	1.33
3	ANA	12	0	0.60
3	WSH	7	0	0.19
4	ANA	5	1	0.92
4	WSH	3	1	0.33
5	ANA	3	2	1.79
5	WSH	3	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2