Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-12-06 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens (SO)
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 61.4%
MTL: 38.6%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.23
MTL: 3.34
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 67%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | TOR | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | 0.939 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs MTL: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | TOR 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | TOR |
| 2025-11-22 | MTL 5 - 2 TOR | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-10-08 | TOR 5 - 2 MTL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-04-12 | TOR 1 - 0 MTL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-18 | MTL 3 - 7 TOR | TOR | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 08:25 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 10:28 | TOR | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TOR | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TOR | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TOR | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.2 - 3.3