Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-06 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 51.5%

MTL: 48.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.25

MTL: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	TOR	MTL
Season SV%	0.912	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.90	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	36	33	3	91.7%	5.02	5	2.02
MTL	Jakub Dobes	26	24	2	92.3%	2.86	1	0.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TOR at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TOR
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.84
1	MTL	12	0	0.77
2	TOR	5	0	0.18
2	MTL	28	1	1.58
3	TOR	15	0	0.51
3	MTL	10	2	0.75
4	TOR	4	0	0.32
4	MTL	3	0	0.27
5	TOR	3	1	1.01
5	MTL	2	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9